Businesses and consumers pessimistic about economy
Businesses and consumers are pessimistic about economic growth this year. For the first time in Albania published Business Confidence Index and the Consumer, which is an important indicator in deciding economic policies. Bank of Albania published yesterday the results of the Business and Consumer Survey, which show that the last quarter of last year and first quarter of this year, at present a positive picture for the two categories included in the survey. The survey included 720 businesses and 1200 consumers. Features of these indicators is that they provide information on the tendency of various economic indicators, based on qualitative opinions, obtained in these two categories. “All users of this information should be aware that this information does not replace or duplicate the official macroeconomic statistics”, – said Governor of the Bank of Albania, Ardian Fullani. Bank of Albania conducts these surveys in collaboration with INSTAT.
Survey
The survey was conducted on four sectors: industry, construction, services, and consumer confidence, the balances of which form the Economic Tendency Index. This indicator fell by 10 percentage points, reaching 105.3% in the last three months of last year. Indicators of confidence to industry and consumers remain below their long-term average. Businesses estimate of industry factors adversely affecting their activity associated with the presence of informal economy and problems with electricity.
The construction sector is the only one that reflected a positive indication of trust, which in the last quarter of 2008 increased by 4 percentage points. According to the survey, this belief grew the demand and production. Although the performance of the economy in the country for the last quarter of 2008-es estimated negative and downward from the previous survey, construction businesses have tried to improve the overall state of their business. Problems encountered more businesses in their construction, are the presence of informal economy and obstacles and institutional framework. And for the first quarter of this year, the construction sector expectations are optimistic, despite the general economic climate is expected to be negative. During the first three months of the year in this sector expected sales growth and improved employment situation. Survey shows that the general level of prices is expected to increase slightly, but still remains low compared with long-term average. The services sector is among the most vulnerable in terms of confidence. In the last quarter of 2008-es, he has recorded a decline of 7 percentage points. However, this figure is significantly above its long-term average. The decline in the confidence indicator was caused by a less optimistic assessment for the three component indicators, overall economic performance, employment situation and financial situation. Even for the period January to March 2009, expectations for the performance of the economy and the overall state of their business are negative.
Consumers: Unemployment will rise in 2009-en
Consumers are pessimistic regarding the general economic situation. At the end of last year, the Consumer Confidence Index declined. The value of the indicator currently stands below its long-term average. The decline in the confidence index was determined by pessimistic expectations of consumers to their financial situation and economic conditions for the first quarter of 2009-es, and a negative assessment of the situation of large amounts of shopping and saving the situation during the last 3 months 2008. Customers expect a decrease in the overall price level after a quarter and a year later. The survey shows that they expect that, in the first half of 2009, the unemployment rate to rise. About 49% of consumers said that unemployment will increase during the following year.